Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 1 minute ago, and this point is in it.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert is in force until 29 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
It is one of only 3 we have recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 June 2026. The last comparable one was on 24 September 2026. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 12:41PM MST until September 29 at 4:30PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ
Urban PEI: 780,158 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 15 June 2026
- July 16, 2026 · 5.4 km
- August 13, 2026 · 6.4 km
- June 15, 2026 · 11.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 41 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 41 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 32.6137, -110.9793 |
| Nearest City | Oro Valley (25 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 780.2K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-29T19:41:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.b058515cff6a174a1bd2b2431cc82238d8cec3ae.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-29T19:41:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-29T17:58:08.570Z. Material modification: 2026-09-29T19:47:05.178Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-29T19:25:17.237Z · data_change
Index 37 → 41.
9 retained revisions changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b058515cff6a174a1bd2b2431cc82238d8cec3ae.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Pima, AZ; Cochise, AZ; Pima, AZ; Cochise, AZ and 4 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 12:41PM MST until September 29 at 4:30PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-29T16:30:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Tucson AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 12 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.645cbd430762199ed3f85bd22cd44c46d9ae2aff.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3d8f41591b869e6c642f20d83978c0ce0f768273.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f3e0800d454ff7ecaa8f28c9647895a4651fe71f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.48e71ef6a1ff4445c944a598cb602643879d27bc.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6f20796873f85551b3f0b735e72eb8e6b9ed3ee7.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8036f09ab08d0139e76e88d276b8bea270932ade.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d5acb9243d20e06a5c9993ec779481a2e5aa9b65.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.259d8c0dbbda730480bd1e779db928af1f718b65.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.abcdeaa851e8c106f3832d4206ced273a23c2e42.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.10e7e6cfb8280415d4a27941c29d387c9e6a2fdd.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.188d5d1cc9778be8a9ee423b5999f6f853dc6b63.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3c03f5df265227cd6948a79920c9a28a3f2746a6.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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